SHFE tin fluctuated upward during the day session, while overall trading in the spot market remained sluggish. [SMM Tin Futures Review]

On December 23, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2602) showed a fluctuating upward trend during the day session, closing at 344,750 yuan/mt in the afternoon, up 0.55% from the previous day. Overseas markets also strengthened, with LME tin rising $720 to $43,450/mt.

In terms of supply, recent data from the General Administration of Customs showed that China's imports of tin concentrates reached 15,099 mt in November 2025, a significant increase MoM. Imports from Myanmar rebounded, overall aligning with market expectations. Since Myanmar began processing mining licenses in July this year, the pace of production resumptions has been slow, constrained by three main issues: first, prolonged shutdowns led to equipment aging, tunnel collapses, and severe water accumulation; second, the number of mine tunnels that can resume production dropped from over 100 to 60-70, a reduction of more than one-third; third, dewatering operations were hindered—the Wa State's low-altitude, high-grade mining areas experienced serious water accumulation. Although dewatering had been carried out for several months, disputes over costs and profit sharing between investors and contractors led to a complete halt in dewatering operations in early September, causing water levels to continue rising and increasing the difficulty of resuming production.

Recent positive signals have emerged: with the end of the southwest monsoon in mid-October, Myanmar entered the dry season with sunny and less rainy weather, providing natural conditions conducive to drainage and repair work in the mining areas, and the pace of production resumptions is expected to gradually accelerate.

Overall, the current supply-demand pattern in the tin market remains generally stable. Domestic import supplements have alleviated supply concerns to some extent, but uncertainties persist regarding the pace of production resumptions in Myanmar. The most-traded SHFE tin contract is expected to continue its sideways movement in the short term, with a reference range of 310,000-355,000 yuan/mt.